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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still