Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
